The Laureen Rahn case appeared to be a straightforward analysis. There was enough information about Laureen’s character and behavior to contribute to a victimology assessment, and a fair accounting of her last known activities. But halfway through the ACH matrix, it became clear that the available evidence was not strong enough to distinguish between multipleContinue reading “Laureen Rahn: ACH Stalls And TRACE Falls Short”
Category Archives: Analysis
Mitchel Weiser and Bonnie Bickwit: A Team Approach
The disappearance of Mitchel Weiser and Bonnie Bickwit in 1973 resembles the Amy Wroe Bechtel case in the absence of evidence. Both matters were examined on this site using The TRACE Technique, a formal methodology for cases with low to no evidence. Its application here reinforced that TRACE is a good fit for this typeContinue reading “Mitchel Weiser and Bonnie Bickwit: A Team Approach”
Judy Bradford Smith: Using “Imperfect” Sources To Support Your Analysis
The Judy Bradford Smith case presented challenges that called for the use of some source documents that would not typically meet the standard for intelligence work. Here, the lesson is not to avoid these sources. Instead, it is to grade citations and disclose the level to which the information can be verified so your audienceContinue reading “Judy Bradford Smith: Using “Imperfect” Sources To Support Your Analysis”
Kendrick Lamar Johnson: Evaluating The Quality Of The Underlying Evidence
The Kendrick Lamar Johnson case illustrates that when the most diagnostic evidence cannot be reliably interpreted, confidence in every competing hypothesis is necessarily constrained. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an official investigative finding and reflects the evidence available atContinue reading “Kendrick Lamar Johnson: Evaluating The Quality Of The Underlying Evidence”
Davina Buff Jones: Compromised Evidence And The “Indeterminate” Hypothesis
Compromised evidence at the scene of the death of police officer Davina Buff Jones prevented a strong conclusion about the manner of death. In similar cases, adding the qualifier “indeterminate/insufficient evidence” to the list of hypotheses can bring attention to the fact the leading theory still possesses inconsistencies so severe that a confident judgment remainsContinue reading “Davina Buff Jones: Compromised Evidence And The “Indeterminate” Hypothesis”