All posts from The Intelligence Shop are included on this page in the order they have been added. Please see the Crime Analysis and Core Competencies pages for specific content, or else use our search button.
Judy Bradford Smith: Using “Imperfect” Sources To Support Your Analysis
The Judy Bradford Smith case presented challenges that called for the use of some source documents that would not typically meet the standard for intelligence work. Here, the lesson is not “avoid weak sources.” Instead, it is to grade citations and disclose the level to which the information can be verified so your audience has the…
Keep readingKendrick Lamar Johnson: Evaluating The Quality Of The Underlying Evidence
The Kendrick Lamar Johnson case illustrates that when the most diagnostic evidence cannot be reliably interpreted, confidence in every competing hypothesis is necessarily constrained. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an official investigative finding and reflects the evidence available at…
Keep readingDavina Buff Jones: Compromised Evidence And The “Indeterminate” Hypothesis
Compromised evidence at the scene of the death of police officer Davina Buff Jones prevented a strong conclusion about the manner of death. In similar cases, adding the qualifier “indeterminate/insufficient evidence” to the list of hypotheses can bring attention to the fact the leading theory still possesses inconsistencies so severe that a confident judgment remains…
Keep readingWhat Happened To The Jamison Family?
The case of the missing Jamison family illustrates how unresolved investigations can accumulate narrative distortion over time. ACH mitigates this problem by separating emotionally compelling or speculative details from evidence that genuinely discriminates between competing hypotheses. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It…
Keep readingDan Rapoport: Was His Fall A Suicide Or A Homicide?
The investigation into the fatal fall of Dan Rapoport from a Washington, D.C., apartment illustrates the dilemma of data quantity versus data quality. When an analysis stalls, the solution isn’t always to hunt for more evidence; instead, try re-examining your existing data set from a fresh perspective. Methodology and Scope This case study is an…
Keep readingDavid Glenn Lewis: Criminal Case Or Private Matter?
The David Glenn Lewis disappearance, and the decade-long delay in identifying his remains, was one of the most perplexing cases The Intelligence Shop has ever analyzed. The analysis led to a lesser examined theory for his departure and one that might be considered in future similar cases. Methodology and Scope This case study is an…
Keep readingAsha Degree: Beyond End-Based Analysis
End-based analysis is common, but the Asha Degree case shows that meaningful analysis can occur at any point in case work. Asking, and answering through analysis, focused questions along the way can deepen our understanding of a matter. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available…
Keep readingJohn P. Wheeler III: Analysis When Evidence Is Limited Or Unavailable
CONTEX, as illustrated by the John P. Wheeler III case, is an analytical framework devised jointly by the analyst and AI tool Claude that is suitable when some evidence is present, but limited, or else unavailable at the time of the analysis. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence…
Keep readingPsychological Cascades And Unintended Consequences: The Death Of Col. Philip M. Shue
Col. Philip M. Shue’s passing appears to be another example of a psychological cascade that led to unintended consequences. The case mirrors AUSA Jonathan P. Luna’s complex death. Psychological cascades are hypotheses that should be considered in difficult to explain cases. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis…
Keep readingAUSA Jonathan Paul Luna: The Limits Of Binary Thinking
An analysis of the Jonathan Luna case found the complex explanation for his death may have contributed to case laying unresolved since 2003.
Keep readingWriting: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help convey a clear and concise written message to consumers of intelligence analysis. Writing is a core competency of the intelligence analyst. If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough. Albert Einstein
Keep readingData Analysis: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help with your data analysis, a core competency of the intelligence analyst. Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, The…
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