All posts from The Intelligence Shop are included on this page in the order they have been added. Please see the Crime Analysis and Core Competencies pages for specific content, or else use our search button.
David Glenn Lewis: Criminal Case Or Private Matter?
The David Glenn Lewis disappearance, and belated rediscovery, is one of the most perplexing cases The Intelligence Shop has ever analyzed. The analysis led to a lesser examined theory for his departure and one that might be considered in future similar cases. The David Glenn Lewis case came to a mixed conclusion in 2004 when…
Keep readingBeyond End-Based Analysis: The Asha Degree Case
End-based analysis is common, but meaningful analysis can occur at any point in case work. Asking, and answering through analysis, focused questions along the way can deepen our understanding of a matter. The case of Asha Degree, a nine-year-old from Shelby, North Carolina, who disappeared after setting out on a solo trek in the early…
Keep readingJohn P. Wheeler III: Analysis When Evidence Is Limited Or Unavailable
CONTEX, as illustrated by the John P. Wheeler III case, is an analytical framework devised jointly by the analyst and AI tool Claude that is suitable when some evidence is present, but limited, or else unavailable at the time of the analysis. Methodology and Limitations Authorities have released limited information about the investigation into the…
Keep readingPsychological Cascades And Unintended Consequences: The Death Of Col. Philip M. Shue, MD
BLUF: Col. Philip M. Shue’s passing appears to be another example of a psychological cascade that led to unintended consequences. The case mirrors AUSA Jonathan P. Luna’s complex death. Psychological cascades are hypotheses that should be considered in difficult to explain cases. Source statement: A comprehensive set of documents contributed to this analysis, notably, the…
Keep readingThe TRACE Technique: A Strategy For Low Evidence Cases
This is an outline of The TRACE Technique (Threat assessment, Reconciliation with facts, Analysis of competing explanations, Conditional probability Evaluation), an analytical methodology developed collaboratively by AI and this analyst to examine the disappearance of Amy Wroe Bechtel. It is applicable to any criminal case with minimal physical evidence. TRACE shifts the focus of the…
Keep readingAmy Wroe Bechtel: Analysis In The Absence Of Evidence
BLUF | The TRACE Technique was developed through human-AI collaboration to examine the disappearance of Amy Wroe Bechtel. It is applicable to any criminal case with minimal physical evidence. TRACE shifts the focus of the analysis away from what, why, or how something happened, to which hypothesis best reconciles with known facts or evidence patterns,…
Keep readingAUSA Jonathan Paul Luna: The Limits Of Binary Thinking
An analysis of the Jonathan Luna case found the complex explanation for his death may have contributed to case laying unresolved since 2003.
Keep readingWriting: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help convey a clear and concise written message to consumers of intelligence analysis. Writing is a core competency of the intelligence analyst. If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough. Albert Einstein
Keep readingData Analysis: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help with your data analysis, a core competency of the intelligence analyst. Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, The…
Keep readingResearch: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help master research, a core competency of the intelligence analyst. Research is formalized curiosity… Zora Neale Hurston
Keep readingDr. Tsunao Saitoh: An Unexplored Hypothesis, A Contextual Threat
BLUF | An unexplored hypothesis, steeped in the context of the time in which the crime was committed, may offer a new direction in the 1996 murder of a neuroscientist. Source statement: This analysis was based on open source, with some access through the Orange County Public Library’s Digital Library and Resources Center. No law…
Keep readingTeam A/Team B: An Outline Of This Analytical Method
This is a framework for a Team A/Team B Analysis. It is one of several formal analytical techniques that can guide analysis, thus ensuring a robust exploration of a topic and a well-considered conclusion. Team A/Team B is effective when there are two strong, competing opinions on an analytical question. After both sides have presented…
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