Kendrick Lamar Johnson: Evaluating The Quality Of The Underlying Evidence

The Kendrick Lamar Johnson case illustrates that when the most diagnostic evidence cannot be reliably interpreted, confidence in every competing hypothesis is necessarily constrained.

Methodology and Scope

This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an official investigative finding and reflects the evidence available at the time of publication. Conclusions are provisional and may change as new evidence becomes public. See the full methodology note at the end of this post.

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Introduction

Kendrick Lamar Johnson died in January 2013. While investigators concluded his death was accidental, competing forensic interpretations emerged that shaped, and continue to shape, public discussion. At the center of the debate: which autopsy findings deserve the greatest evidentiary weight?

10-11 January 2013

Kendrick Lamar Johnson was a 17-year-old junior at Lowndes High School in Valdosta, Georgia. The youngest of four children, relatives described him as quiet and good with numbers.¹ He played football and basketball in school and ran track.

On 10 January 2013, school video cameras caught Johnson walking into the high school’s “old gym” at 1:27 PM, but once he passed out of frame, the sequence was lost.

The following day, 11 January 2013, two female students, who were climbing atop a set of 16 wrestling mats, rolled vertically for storage in the corner of the gym, saw a pair of socks just a few inches from the top of one of them. A teacher on scene displaced several mats in an effort to reach the back row.

At approximately 11: 08 AM, law enforcement and first responders began arriving on the scene. These included members of the Lowndes County Sheriff’s Office, along with personnel from the Valdosta-Lowndes Regional Crime Laboratory, Georgia Bureau of Investigation (GBI), and emergency medical technicians. The Lowndes County coroner was not called to the location until 3:45 PM. In the report he filed later, coroner W.M. “Bill” Watson said he found a compromised scene with the body “noticeably moved.”^2,3

Wrestling Mats

As authorities began their interviews, they learned that in addition to their primary purpose, students accessed the tops of the six-foot tall rolled wrestling mats via a set of adjacent bleachers and used them for extra seating, as well as using the void in the center of the mats as alternative storage space. The school charged for lockers, so some students used this as a free option, especially to store shoes.

Authorities learned that in anticipation of winter break, which had just ended a couple of days before, mats that had previously been laid horizontally were now stored upright. As a consequence, some of the mats that had been easily accessible were now blocked and couldn’t be tipped easily to retrieve personal items. At the same time, the contents were relocated from where they had been placed originally.

Based on this information, detectives began to develop a theory, which was Johnson was crawling atop the mats in search of his stored gym shoes, which had ended up placed nearer to the back wall. He tipped his body into the mat to retrieve them, but as he reached for the shoes, gravity propelled him forward. Once wedged inside, it was an impossible position from which to escape.

It was a theory supported by the GBI autopsy. The pathologist found the state of the body, law enforcement reporting, and on-site photos led to a finding of positional asphyxia as cause of death, with manner of death, accident.

Johnson’s parents, however, disagreed. They believed Kendrick had been cornered in the gym, beaten by classmates, and then rolled into the mat. A private autopsy, paid for by the family and their supporters, found Johnson died of blunt force trauma to the right neck involving a hemorrhaging carotid artery “consistent with inflicted injury.”⁴

Analysis

The leading contradictory hypotheses were accident versus homicide. But a third hypothesis, “indeterminate/insufficient evidence,” first applied in the Davina Buff Jones case, was added. The purpose was to account for irregularities the Johnson family and their legal team identified, such as gaps in chain of custody and a disputed delay in notifying the coroner, compounded by allegations (raised in subsequent litigation) concerning the original autopsy result.

The three hypotheses were tested using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) with the matrix constructed first by the analyst and subsequently by large language models (LLMs) ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and Gemini.

H1: Accidental death resulting from entrapment in wrestling mat (Johnson accessed the mat to reach a pair of sports shoes he had stored there, became wedged in the restrictive space, and suffocated.)

H2: Homicide and concealment by unknown perpetrator(s) (Johnson’s death was a murder with multiple persons involved in subsequent coverup.)

H3: Indeterminate/insufficient evidence

Findings

Even though the analyst and all LLMs all set aside the homicide scenario–due to it carrying the heaviest inconsistency load–confidence in the accident hypothesis was moderated by the indeterminate hypothesis. LLMs Claude and Grok ranked H3, the indeterminate hypothesis first and H1, the accident hypothesis, second. This result indicated the autopsy conflict was too structurally unresolved to elevate accident to the leading position. For the analyst and LLMs ChatGPT and Gemini, H3, the indeterminate hypothesis, was more competitive, but confidence in the leading explanation, H1, accident, was still tempered by unresolved inconsistencies and evidentiary limitations.

Focus: The Contradictory Autopsy Reports

The primary issue that suppressed the confidence level was the contradictory autopsy reports. They were both factual, scientifically-based documents from board certified pathologists, but they offered opposing views: on one hand, accident; and on the other hand, homicide. Thus, the autopsy reports warranted a closer examination.

AUTOPSY HISTORY

January 2013 | Autopsy #1 (physical autopsy): Three days after the body was discovered, an autopsy was performed by GBI pathologist Maryanne Gaffney-Kraft. She had the benefit of examining the body in its original state.

• Cause of death: positional asphyxia
• Manner of death: accident
• Details:
  • “Vesicle formation with skin slippage of the head, neck, torso and upper extremities, the changes increase[d] in degree inferior to superior”⁵ (this pointed to a head down position at death).
  • No evidence of injury to the body other than minor injuries to the hands (no classic defensive wounds).
  • The “blood” identified around the victim’s head when he was found was not blood at all, but “purge,” a fluid found around decomposed bodies or bodies found inverted.
  • Blood found in the course of the investigation on the wall of the gym and in the girls’ bathroom were negative for the victim. Had the blood returned positive for Johnson, the cause of death would remain the same (asphyxia), but the manner of death would have been deemed undetermined.
  • The “bruising” identified on Johnson’s chin (which led to changing the findings on the Armed Forces Medical Examiner (AFME) autopsy (below) was not bruising, but congestive decomposition.
  • What was described as “swelling,” purportedly as a result of an assault, was actually bloating, which accounted for the distortion of Johnson’s face. (A body must be alive to swell; deceased bodies bloat due to decomposition gases.)

June 2013 | Autopsy #2A (physical autopsy): Approximately six months after their son’s passing, the Johnson family legally ordered the body exhumed for a private autopsy by Dr. William R. Anderson. At this point, the body had been embalmed. Upon autopsy, it was discovered the organs, which were typically placed back inside the body after autopsy, were missing. The question of whether they disappeared at the coroner’s office or the funeral home was never resolved. Microscopic slides of the tissues were available and examined, and select new ones taken.

• Cause of death: blunt force trauma, high neck, involving right mandible, and soft tissues, including the area of the carotid body, consistent with inflicted injury
• Manner of death (implicit): unexplained, non-accidental blunt force trauma, further investigation is indicated to determine the etiology of the injuries
• Details:
  • Injury patterns characterized as “apparently non-accidental” (autopsy did not establish a pathway as to how those injuries might have caused death).
  • “Review of initial autopsy: (a) pulmonary findings c/w rapid onset death; (b) findings not consistent with positional asphyxia.”⁶

August 2014 | “Autopsy” #3A (document review only): In August 2014, at the request of the Department of Justice (DOJ), the AFME reviewed the two physical autopsy reports. (Analyst’s note: The AFME review was in conjunction with the DOJ investigation looking into whether Kendrick Johnson’s civil rights had been violated or federal laws broken. The only publicly-available reference to this autopsy was a DOJ press release that stated, “…The investigative team also consulted with an independent Department of Defense medical examiner/forensic pathologist who reviewed relevant medical records and both autopsy reports.”)

• Cause of death: positional asphyxia
• Manner of death: accident
• Details: The report was not released to the public.

April 2016 | “Autopsy” #3B (document review only): In April 2016, the afore-mentioned AFME his amended previously reported findings. The impetus for the change was the receipt of a report the pathologist claimed not to have seen at the time he wrote his original opinion. The “new” document had been filed by first responder South Georgia Medical Mobile Healthcare (SGMMH) service and had been present in the Lowndes County Sheriff’s Office case file. In the SGMMH report, one of the EMS technicians wrote that he had observed a bruise on the victim’s chin. (Analyst’s note: For context, sometime after the amendment was filed, it was disclosed there had been a personal relationship between the female DOJ employee who prompted it and the AFME. There were no details about whether the DOJ employee was acting on her own behalf, or on behalf of an unnamed person or persons. In an email written to a third party, she mentioned that in reaching out to the AFME, “I had to make him feel like a man so that he would be open to talking.” It appeared the amendment occurred after this communication.) 

• Cause of death: undetermined
• Manner of death: undetermined
• Details:
  • The report was not released to the public.

June 2018 | Autopsy #2B (physical autopsy): In June 2018, about five years after their son’s passing, the family ordered the body exhumed for a second time again for examination by Dr. Anderson. If there was context to the decision it was not found in research. Neither was there an explanation for the revised findings.

• Cause of death: blunt force trauma, high neck, involving right mandible, and soft tissues, including the area of the carotid body, consistent with inflicted injury. Blunt force trauma, right antero-lateral thorax.
• Manner of death (implicit): unexplained, non-accidental blunt force trauma, further investigation is indicated to determine the etiology of the injuries”
• Details:
  • The autopsy did not establish a pathway as to how thoracic injuries might have led to death.

COMPARISON OF AUTOPSIES

A table was constructed with the autopsies listed horizontally, and 17 attributes (see below) listed vertically. The analyst populated the table, and then, working with LLM Claude for scoring assistance,⁷ input the data into LLMs ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok for evaluation. (Analyst’s note: Autopsy “reviews” #4 and #5 were removed prior to scoring for lack of detail.)

1. Cause/manner of death
2. Exam type
3. Examiner credentials
4. Examiner independence and incentive structure
5. Internal consistency, concreteness (specificity, logic, contradictions [i.e. blunt force trauma, other supportive injuries?], alternative explanations [considered, ruled out])
6. Body condition at time of autopsy (embalmment, days since death, altered tissue)
7. Access to original tissue samples, organs, photographs?
8. Was anything removed/lost between autopsies?
9. Who had physical control of the body and evidence at each handoff?
10. Peer/professional reviews (only pathologists, no journalists)?
11. Was the autopsy challenged/defended in court?
12. Did any professional body comment on methodology?
13. Did the autopsy include its own imaging or rely on others?
14. Specimen retention
15. Time gap between death and each autopsy
16. Scope (what was requested of examiner)
17. Flags

UNRESOLVED ISSUES

The LLMs identified the same specific points that needed resolution before further evaluation of the autopsy findings could be conducted. Following are the discrepancies, along with how each could potentially be resolved and what result would follow.

Discrepancy #1 | The missing organs: The organs were found to be missing at the time the second autopsy was performed (Dr. Anderson, 6/2013).

• The GBI’s position: The organs were removed for autopsy (standard procedure), examined, and placed back into the body cavity before closing and releasing the body to the funeral home.
• The Harrington Funeral Home’s position (per owner Antonio Harrington): The body was received without the internal organs. Harrington claimed they had been “destroyed through natural process” (due to the body’s position/decomposition) and “discarded by the prosector” (the person performing the autopsy) before the body arrived in Valdosta.⁸
• Resolution: Accessing the intake/discharge logs or transport records from GBI and/or Harrington Funeral Home should resolve this issue (no evidence this was ever done).
• Result: This would not directly push either the accident or homicide theory; it would simply assign responsibility for the gap, which matters for credibility and legal liability.

Discrepancy #2 | Bruising versus congestive decomposition: (1) Discoloration on Johnson’s chin/jaw/mandible described as bruising by an EMS technician at the scene⁹ was the purported reason the AFME amended his opinion on cause and manner of death (from accident in 2014, to undetermined in 2016). (2) The “mandible” was one of two areas in which Dr. Anderson saw blunt force trauma inflicted on Johnson (upper neck/right mandible, and carotid body) that contributed to his death. Dr. Anderson notes in his autopsy report he conducted a microscopic examination of the area.

• Dr. Gaffney-Kraft: In her deposition (taken in conjunction with a lawsuit filed by the Johnsons against the Harrington Funeral Home, et al, 2025), Dr. Gaffney-Kraft stated she could “see where [the EMS technician(s)] interpreted—misinterpreted what they saw as bruising, but (this) was congestive decomposition…to the untrained eye, (it) may have appeared to be bruising…”¹⁰ She said she was aware of this observation before she wrote her final autopsy report.
• Dr. Anderson: Dr. Anderson disagrees. He found in Autopsy #2 (2013) that “examination of the head and neck shows an area of contusion injury involving the right mandibular area, with moderate discoloration of the skin.” Further, his exam of the soft tissues of the right neck, as well as sections of the mandible were positive for the presence of “extravasated RBCs” (microscopic signature of hemorrhage). (Analyst’s note: Dr. Anderson’s 2018 microscopic exam of the right mandible did not show those same results¹¹ [NFI].)
• Resolution: The autopsy states there was a microscopic exam of tissue samples of the right neck/mandible. As the exam centered on disputed autopsy results, there is a strong possibility they were preserved as evidence. An independent third-party pathologist could assess the pattern and distribution of the extravasated RBCs, and offer an opinion as to whether the pattern came before death (trauma), or after passing (post-mortem decomposition). (Per LLM Claude: “Vital hemorrhage (caused by trauma while the person was alive) and post-mortem decomposition artifact tend to look different under a microscope.”)
• Result: If found to be trauma, it would point toward homicide; if post-mortem decomposition, it would more likely represent accident.

Discrepancy #3 | Carotid injury as a death pathway: In addition to the right neck and right mandible, Dr. Anderson identified the carotid body as sustaining blunt force trauma, an area of injury that contributed to his death.

• Dr. Gaffney-Kraft (from her deposition): In her deposition, Dr. Gaffney-Kraft was asked about a blow to the carotid area resulting in death. She said, “In someone with no history, in a young person, I have never seen a report of that before. There is an entity where people have sensitive carotid sinuses and the carotid sinuses controls your pulse rate and your blood pressure and there is an entity where people have that…But in general, for a young healthy 17 year old, I have never, without any history whatsoever—First of all, I’ve never seen it documented at that age, but without any history of ever having any symptoms, then no.”
• Dr. Anderson: In his autopsy report, Dr. Anderson did not delineate a pathway in which a blow to the carotid artery could have led to death.
• Analyst: Dr. Anderson reported, “Examination of the right upper-neck reveals hemorrhage in the deep soft tissue and musculature adjacent to the bifurcation [emphasis mine] of the right common carotid artery and carotid body.” ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok said a blow to the general area of the carotid artery was enough to disrupt the nerve signals, cause the brain to send an electrical signal down the vagus nerve, and abruptly signal the heart to stop beating. But LLM Claude disagreed. Claude said this cause of death required direct injury to the carotid sinus wall or “glomus caroticum,” which was the “specific structure the reflex mechanism depended on…Anderson himself never diagnosed a reflex/vagal death,” only blunt force trauma near the area of the carotid body, consistent with inflicted injury.
• Resolution: The opinion of an authoritative body, an independent third-party pathologist who could support his or her findings with a medical literature review.
• Result: If the professional opinion of a third-party pathologist supported the theory a blow to the carotid artery could result in sudden death in a young, healthy person, this would support the homicide hypothesis. If the professional opinion found this pathway medically implausible, the accident theory would prevail.

C. Discrepancy #4 | The thorax injury: Five years after the autopsy by Dr. Anderson, a second exhumation of the body occurred. As a result of the new autopsy, Dr. Anderson added blunt force trauma to the right thorax as a cause of death, while maintaining that blunt force trauma to the right neck was a additional cause of death for Johnson. (Analyst’s note: The new procedure raised the following issues: [1] Why was the thorax wound not identified during Dr. Anderson’s initial autopsy in 2013? [2] What prompted the second exhumation and exam? The circumstances were never explained.)

• Dr. Gaffney-Kraft: During her deposition, the attorney for the Johnson family did not ask Dr. Gaffney-Kraft about the thorax injury, so her medical opinion was not revealed.
• Dr. Anderson: Dr. Anderson identified the thorax injury as a cause of death, but he did not offer an explanation as to the mechanism.
• Analyst: As with the carotid body injury, the LLMs disagreed. Gemini and Grok said the thorax injury pointed to commotio cordis, a “sudden blow at a vulnerable moment in the heart’s electrical cycle [that] causes ventricular fibrillation without structural heart damage, leading to sudden cardiac arrest.” But Claude stated commotio cordis was defined by the absence of chest wall damage. “The whole diagnostic profile is a normal-looking chest wall and heart with death caused purely by an electrical disruption.” ChatGPT made the distinction that Dr. Anderson’s conclusion of death by thoracic injury only held if the observed hemorrhage “truly represent[ed] antemortem (before-death) traumatic bleeding.” But the timing of his exams–six months and five years after death–post-embalmment, post-interment, and without internal organs present set up conditions that led to an integral question: did the “discoloration and microscopic red blood cells represent true traumatic hemorrhage or could [they] instead reflect postmortem changes, decomposition, embalming artifact, or redistribution of blood?”
• Resolution: The opinion of an authoritative body, an independent third-party pathologist whose opinion was supported by a medical literature review, could potentially resolve this discrepancy.
• Result: If the professional opinion of a third-party pathologist supported the theory a blow to the carotid artery could result in sudden death in a young, healthy person, this would support the homicide hypothesis. If the professional opinion found this pathway medically implausible, the accident theory would prevail.

The autopsy findings, specifically, determining which side presented a stronger case, continue to confound. A layperson’s literature review failed to resolve the outstanding contradictions. The next step is review by an independent, board-certified forensic pathologist with no prior connection to the case. Absent that process, this analysis, by necessity, must treat the mechanism-specific hypotheses as unresolved.

Where the Case Stands Today

The Johnson family has never accepted the manner of death as accident. Since 2013, they have worked through the legal system to keep the investigation active and through social media to ensure it stays in the public eye. They have also sought to change the manner of death to homicide. Their efforts have yielded some results, with examinations and reexaminations by Lowndes County and Georgia officials, as well as the DOJ. As of April 2026, the case was reported active at the Lowndes County Sheriff’s Office. The official manner of death is accident.

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Postscript

This analysis veered from the usual analytical path, along the way becoming less about how Kendrick Johnson died and more about whether the available evidence could support a confident conclusion. It revealed confidence is limited by the quality and interpretability of the evidence, not the diligent application of a formal analytical technique.

Despite best efforts, the question of the contradictory medical interpretations remained unresolved. Unless and until the discrepancies are addressed through an independent review by a board-certified forensic pathologist with no prior involvement in the case, the indeterminate hypothesis will continue to moderate the result.

Instead of this being a weakness of ACH, it actually represents one of its strengths. By evaluating the data set through the lens of the indeterminate hypothesis, the process resisted false certainty and accurately reflected the limits of the conclusion.

In that respect, the Kendrick Johnson analysis echoed the earlier Dan Rapoport case. There, confidence was constrained by an unresolved question concerning the provenance of the Pugacheva reporting. Here, confidence was constrained by conflicting interpretations of the autopsy evidence. In both cases, the analysis reached the same endpoint: not that the answer is unknowable, but that the existing evidence cannot justify greater confidence than the facts support.

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About These Case Analyses

The case studies published on The Intelligence Shop are educational exercises intended to demonstrate structured analytical techniques, including Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), evidence evaluation, and confidence assessment.

These analyses are based on publicly available information, including official records, court documents, publicly released investigative materials, reputable media reporting, and other open-source information available at the time of publication. They do not rely on privileged investigative files, nonpublic evidence, witness interviews, or other information available only to law enforcement or the courts.

An intelligence analyst and a criminal investigator perform different functions. Investigators gather evidence. Analysts evaluate available evidence to assess the relative strength of competing explanations. Accordingly, the conclusions presented here are analytical assessments—not official findings—and are limited by the scope and quality of the publicly available record.

Analytical assessments are inherently provisional. As new evidence becomes publicly available or previously unavailable information comes to light, an assessment may change. Revisions are made when warranted by credible evidence.

The purpose of these articles is not to declare definitive truth, but to demonstrate transparent, evidence-based reasoning. Readers who identify factual inaccuracies or wish to provide additional publicly verifiable information are welcome to contact the author through the Web site.

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Footnotes

1. Russ Bynam, “Kendrick Johnson’s Parents Still Searching For Answers To Their Son’s Death,” Huff Post, 10 January 2014. ↩︎
2. W.M. “Bill” Watson, “Coroner’s Death Investigation Report,” State of Georgia, GBI, Division of Forensic Science, 11 January 2013. Note: Coroner Watson noted the integrity of the body bag itself was compromised on 13 January 2013 the sealed bag was opened for viewing by the victim’s father. ↩︎
3. He noted the integrity of the body bag was also compromised when on 13 January 2013 the sealed bag was opened for viewing by the victim’s father. ↩︎
4. Kenneth Johnson; Jacqueline Johnson, Plaintiffs, v. Georgia Department of Public Health, Civil Action No: 124-cv-05140-SEG, First Amended Complaint, 25 July 2025. ↩︎
5. Kenneth Johnson; Jacqueline Johnson, Plaintiffs, v. Georgia Department of Public Health, Civil Action No: 124-cv-05140-SEG, First Amended Complaint, 25 July 2025. ↩︎
6. William R. Anderson, MD, “Report of Forensic Diagnostic Consultation,” PVT-13, Forensic Dimensions, 15 August 2013. ↩︎
7. Verbiage submitted to each LLM: “I’m scoring competing autopsy reports in a contested death investigation using a fixed rubric. Score Autopsy #1, #2A, and #2B on each of the four axes below, using a 0–3 scale per axis (3 = strongest/no significant concern, 0 = severe failure/no support). 
   RULES: – Score each axis independently. Do NOT calculate or report a composite/weighted total. – For every score, cite the specific table row and quote or closely paraphrase the cell content that justifies it. A score with no citation is invalid — revise it. – Confirm examiner board certification as pass/fail only. Do not assign it a score or let it influence any axis score. – Present your answer as a table: rows = axes, columns = #1/#2A/#2B, each cell = score + one-sentence citation. – If two autopsies tie on an axis, say so explicitly rather than forcing a tiebreak. 
   AXES: (A) Forensic Validity — could this exam, mechanically, support its stated conclusions? Based on body condition/decomposition, time elapsed since death, access to original tissue/organs, specimen retention, and whether independent imaging was performed vs. relying on prior work. 3 = minimal time elapsed, body unaltered, full organ/tissue access, independent imaging performed. 2 = single exhumation/embalmment, tissue-slide access only (no organs), own imaging performed. 1 = multiple exhumations or long elapsed interval, severely limited tissue access, imaging unclear or absent. 0 = no physical exam at all. 
   (B) Examiner Independence & Custody Integrity — examiner’s relationship to interested parties, and soundness of evidence custody. 3 = no financial/relational tie to any interested party, standard custody chain, no flags. 2 = retained by an interested party, but custody chain is documented and no behavioral-pressure flag exists. 1 = retained by an interested party AND a documented custody gap or pressure flag exists. 0 = direct evidence of undue influence on the examiner’s findings. 
   (C) Argument Coherence & Stability — is the reasoning internally sound, and have findings held up over time? 3 = clear causal chain from findings to conclusion, alternatives explicitly addressed and ruled out, no unexplained changes. 2 = reasoning generally sound but with a minor unaddressed gap. 1 = a stated finding lacks an established causal pathway, or a gap is acknowledged in the report itself. 0 = findings changed materially between versions with no stated rationale, or a causal-pathway gap compounds with an unexplained revision. 
   (D) External Validation — did anyone outside the original exam stress-test it, and how did it hold up? 3 = withstood independent review and/or court challenge without unresolved findings against it. 2 = reviewed or disputed by another examiner, but no formal professional-body action and no court ruling against it. 1 = subject to ongoing legal challenge or professional dispute with no resolution to date. 0 = formally repudiated by a professional body or court.” ↩︎
8. Victor Blackwell and Devon Sayers, “Gym mat death shocker: Body stuffed with newspaper,” CNN, Updated 10 October 2013. ↩︎
9. One EMT who responded to the scene reportedly observed discoloration on Kendrick’s right jaw and characterized it as bruising; a second EMT present did not observe or report the same finding. ↩︎
10. Kenneth Johnson; Jacqueline Johnson, Plaintiffs, v. Georgia Department of Public Health, Civil Action No: 124-cv-05140-SEG, First Amended Complaint, 25 July 2025. ↩︎
11. William R. Anderson, MD, “Report of Forensic Diagnostic Consultation,” PVT-13, Forensic Dimensions, 15 August 2013; 21 September 2018 (addendum). ↩︎