Reports recently surfaced of FBI personnel involving themselves with a prominent social media company to control the spread of “misinformation” and the squelching of “disinformation.” Catching and suppressing or eliminating speech spread on social media deemed false or inaccurate is an insurmountable goal, and one fraught with problems, for example, limited resources. But the largerContinue reading “Strengthening Your Ability To Identify Mis- and DisInformation”
Tag Archives: Structured Analysis
ACH: The Route 91 Harvest Shooting
The following is an application of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to the Route 91 Harvest shooter case, the mass murder of 58 persons attending an open-air music festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, on 1 October 2017. The case came to a dissatisfying close in early 2019 with investigators announcing a motive was notContinue reading “ACH: The Route 91 Harvest Shooting”
Gaining Audience Trust When Presenting Controversial Findings
The findings of intelligence assessments are occasionally controversial. This includes products released only for internal consumption, as well as those rare assessments that are disseminated to the broader public. Ideally, the paper is written apolitically, using dispassionate language, and with enough unequivocal support that even a contentious message is given due consideration. Yet, even reportsContinue reading “Gaining Audience Trust When Presenting Controversial Findings”
Analysis, Not Opinions
An intelligence analyst may be a subject matter “expert.” This expertise could be derived from years of service, formal education, or intimate knowledge of a topic, such as growing up in the country of his or her assigned portfolio. Still, when it comes to answering an intelligence question, the role of the analyst is toContinue reading “Analysis, Not Opinions”
Informal Versus Formal Problem Solving
This diagram shows the difference between informal and formal problem solving. You can see hypotheses and evidence are processed very differently. Take a look at the first triangle. Here, we begin to form a single explanation as soon as we encounter a data set or scenario. The “support” for it comes consciously and subconsciously, internallyContinue reading “Informal Versus Formal Problem Solving”
The Intelligence Shop 