Below you will find posts focusing on the core competencies of the intelligence analyst. They cover such topics as research, analysis, and writing. They are suitable for the newer intelligence analyst.
The TRACE Technique: A Strategy For Low Evidence Cases
This is an outline of The TRACE Technique (Threat assessment, Reconciliation with facts, Analysis of competing explanations, Conditional probability Evaluation), an analytical methodology developed collaboratively by AI and this analyst to examine the disappearance of Amy Wroe Bechtel. It is applicable to any criminal case with minimal physical evidence. TRACE shifts the focus of the…
Keep readingWriting: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help convey a clear and concise written message to consumers of intelligence analysis. Writing is a core competency of the intelligence analyst. If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough. Albert Einstein
Keep readingData Analysis: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help with your data analysis, a core competency of the intelligence analyst. Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, The…
Keep readingResearch: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help master research, a core competency of the intelligence analyst. Research is formalized curiosity… Zora Neale Hurston
Keep readingHow To Analyze A Data Set
How to analyze a data set is a core competency of the intelligence analyst. Here is some advice on multiple ways to look at and evaluate your data, and how to proceed to ensure a strong analysis. (Analyst’s note: This post does not explain how to gather a defensible data set. You’ll find that information…
Keep readingStrong, Neutral Sources: The Foundation of A Defensible Analysis
In 2023, an FBI intelligence product intended for internal use only was leaked to the public. The piece received criticism from some outlets for its content, but also for its sources. The problem with its sources came down to two issues: the product used popular magazines as a primary means of support for its premises;…
Keep readingIntelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns
Intelligence gaps are the spaces in our understanding of a matter. They represent information that is not available for one reason or another, but if it were available, we could offer decision makers a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. In some cases, gaps can be filled by tasking investigators to reach out to their sources.…
Keep readingThe Format Of The Analytical Statement: What/So What?
Intelligence analysis is the interpretation of facts. Analysts examine a scenario or data set, put the facts into context, add perspective, and explain to a decision maker why it all matters. The written format of an analytical statement is sometimes described as the “what/so what?” The “what” is the fact; the “so what” is its…
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