Welcome To The Intelligence Shop
…a site for intelligence analysts. We focus on the core competencies of the trade: researching and collecting data sets, analyzing, and writing. Although most topics are geared toward the intelligence professional, there is also information of interest to anyone seeking to improve critical thinking skills.
Note: In November 2025, a section dedicated to crime analysis was added to The Intelligence Shop. Posts on this page relate to analytical techniques applied to cold cases and unsolved crimes.
Thank you for visiting. We hope you will find your time is well spent.
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Beyond End-Based Analysis: The Asha Degree Case
End-based analysis is common, but meaningful analysis can occur at any point in case work. Asking, and answering through analysis, focused questions along the way can deepen our understanding of a matter. The case of Asha Degree, a nine-year-old from Shelby, North Carolina, who disappeared after setting out on a solo trek in the early hours of the morning of 14 February 2000, frames the concept that meaningful analysis is not always end-based. Here, we shift focus from the overarching question: What happened to Asha Degree? — investigators recently called the case a homicide and are exploring leads based on…
Keep readingMajor intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set.
Richards J. Heuer, The Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving
Analysis is what separates informal from formal problem solving. This diagram shows the difference. You can see hypotheses and evidence are processed very differently. Take a look at the first triangle. Here, we begin to form a single explanation as soon as we encounter a data set or scenario. The “support” for it comes consciously…
Keep readingInverted Pyramid: The Format For Intelligence Products
Formal intelligence products follow the same basic format, an inverted pyramid. Agencies have their own templates—sometimes multiple templates to fit different types of intelligence products—but all place the most important information at the top, followed by supportive analysis and facts. The overall presentation is sometimes referred to as the “bottom line up front,” or BLUF.…
Keep readingIntelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns
Intelligence gaps are the spaces in our understanding of a matter. They represent information that is not available for one reason or another, but if it were available, we could offer decision makers a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. In some cases, gaps can be filled by tasking investigators to reach out to their sources.…
Keep readingHow To Write An Intelligence Question
Revised 29 January 2022 A good intelligence question leads naturally to an analytical thesis. It is distinguished from a research question in that a research question elicits facts; an intelligence question elicits analysis. The answer to an intelligence question offers a “what” and a “so what.” The “what” is a factual statement that might derive…
Keep readingHugues De La Plaza: An Analysis Of Murder Vs. Suicide
BLUF | Formal analytical techniques originally developed for use in intelligence analysis are equally effective in crime analysis. The 2007 death of dual citizen Hugues de la Plaza, who was found in his San Francisco, California, apartment, is unresolved by local authorities with conflicting hypotheses as to whether he succumbed by homicide or suicide. Two…
Keep readingThe Format Of The Analytical Statement: What/So What?
Intelligence analysis is the interpretation of facts. Analysts examine a scenario or data set, put the facts into context, add perspective, and explain to a decision maker why it all matters. The written format of an analytical statement is sometimes described as the “what/so what?” The “what” is the fact; the “so what” is its…
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