Welcome To The Intelligence Shop
The Intelligence Shop is a resource for professional analysts and others interested in analytical tradecraft. We focus on the core competencies of the trade: researching and collecting data, analyzing it, thinking critically, and communicating the results through clear, effective writing.
Most of our material is geared toward the working crime and intelligence analyst, but the techniques and principles apply wherever complex information must be evaluated, interpreted, and explained. We also demonstrate those techniques through real-world analytical problems, including cold cases and other matters where the available evidence is incomplete or ambiguous.
Thank you for visiting. We hope your time here is well spent.
Good analysis isn’t about having more information. It’s about making better use of the information you have.
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Laureen Rahn: ACH Stalls And TRACE Falls Short
The Laureen Rahn case appeared to be a straightforward analysis. There was enough information about Laureen’s character and behavior to contribute to a victimology assessment, and a fair accounting of her last known activities. But halfway through the ACH matrix, it became clear that the available evidence was not strong enough to distinguish between multiple hypotheses. The TRACE Technique, a novel methodology for low- to no-evidence cases, appeared better suited to the task. Ultimately, however, TRACE 1.3 also failed to produce sufficiently reproducible results to support a confident ranking of the hypotheses. Instead, the analysis exposed further weaknesses in an…
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Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving
Analysis is what separates informal from formal problem solving. This diagram shows the difference. You can see hypotheses and evidence are processed very differently. Take a look at the first triangle. Here, we begin to form a single explanation as soon as we encounter a dataset or scenario. The “support” for it comes consciously and…
Keep readingInverted Pyramid: The Format For Intelligence Products
Formal intelligence products follow the same basic format, an inverted pyramid. Agencies have their own templates—sometimes multiple templates to fit different types of intelligence products—but all place the most important information at the top, followed by supportive analysis and facts. The overall presentation is sometimes referred to as the “bottom line up front,” or BLUF.…
Keep readingIntelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns
Intelligence gaps are the spaces in our understanding of a matter. They represent information that is not available for one reason or another, but if it were available, we could offer decision makers a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. In some cases, gaps can be filled by tasking investigators to reach out to their sources.…
Keep readingHow To Write An Intelligence Question
Revised 29 January 2022 A good intelligence question leads naturally to an analytical thesis. It is distinguished from a research question in that a research question elicits facts; an intelligence question elicits analysis. The answer to an intelligence question offers a “what” and a “so what.” The “what” is a factual statement that might derive…
Keep readingThe Format Of The Analytical Statement: What/So What?
Intelligence analysis is the interpretation of facts. Analysts examine a scenario or dataset, put the facts into context, add perspective, and explain to a decision maker why it all matters. The written format of an analytical statement is sometimes described as the “what/so what?” The “what” is the fact; the “so what” is its relevance.…
Keep readingPsychological Cascades And Unintended Consequences: The Death Of Col. Philip M. Shue
Col. Philip M. Shue’s passing appears to be another example of a psychological cascade that led to unintended consequences. The case mirrors AUSA Jonathan P. Luna’s complex death. Psychological cascades are hypotheses that should be considered in difficult to explain cases. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis…
Keep readingMajor intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set.
Richards J. Heuer, The Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis