Reports recently surfaced of FBI personnel involving themselves with a prominent social media company to control the spread of “misinformation” and the squelching of “disinformation.” Catching and suppressing or eliminating speech spread on social media deemed false or inaccurate is an insurmountable goal, and one fraught with problems, for example, limited resources. But the largerContinue reading “Strengthening Your Ability To Identify Mis- and DisInformation”
Author Archives: The Host
Credible, Unbiased Sources Are The Underpinning Of A Defensible Analysis
An FBI intelligence product intended for internal use only was recently leaked to the public. The piece received criticism from some outlets for its content, but also for its sourcing. The problem with its sourcing came down to two issues: the product used popular magazines as a primary means of support for its premises; andContinue reading “Credible, Unbiased Sources Are The Underpinning Of A Defensible Analysis “
Intelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns
Intelligence gaps are the spaces in our understanding of a matter. They represent information that is not available for one reason or another, but if it were available, we could offer decision makers a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. In some cases, gaps can be filled by tasking investigators to reach out to their sources.Continue reading “Intelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns”
ACH: The Route 91 Harvest Shooting
The following is an application of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to the Route 91 Harvest shooter case, the mass murder of 58 persons attending an open-air music festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, on 1 October 2017. The case came to a dissatisfying close in early 2019 with investigators announcing a motive was notContinue reading “ACH: The Route 91 Harvest Shooting”
The Route 91 Harvest Shooter: Adding Perspective With A Timeline
When supporting a complex investigation through intelligence analysis one way to organize your data is through a timeline. When incidents leading up to an event are sorted chronologically they can sometimes put precipitating incidents into perspective, which may reveal clues that are less apparent than when you’re reading case files alone. Timelines are also helpfulContinue reading “The Route 91 Harvest Shooter: Adding Perspective With A Timeline”
Gaining Audience Trust When Presenting Controversial Findings
The findings of intelligence assessments are occasionally controversial. This includes products released only for internal consumption, as well as those rare assessments that are disseminated to the broader public. Ideally, the paper is written apolitically, using dispassionate language, and with enough unequivocal support that even a contentious message is given due consideration. Yet, even reportsContinue reading “Gaining Audience Trust When Presenting Controversial Findings”
Robert Hanssen Spy Case Illustrates The Difficulty of Overcoming Mindsets
Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Focusing on a single scenario early in an analysis can lead to a mindsetContinue reading “Robert Hanssen Spy Case Illustrates The Difficulty of Overcoming Mindsets”
The Intelligence Shop 