The following is an application of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to the Route 91 Harvest shooter case, the mass murder of 58 persons attending an open-air music festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, on 1 October 2017. The case came to a dissatisfying close in early 2019 with investigators announcing a motive was notContinue reading “ACH: The Route 91 Harvest Shooting”
Tag Archives: brainstorming
Robert Hanssen Spy Case Illustrates The Difficulty of Overcoming Mindsets
Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Focusing on a single scenario early in an analysis can lead to a mindsetContinue reading “Robert Hanssen Spy Case Illustrates The Difficulty of Overcoming Mindsets”
The Umbrella Man, Part II
This is part II of The Umbrella Man. If you skipped the previous post, it might make more sense if you go back and take a quick look. A few years ago, I was reviewing CCTV images in relation to a suspicious incident. The picture quality was low and there was no audio. As IContinue reading “The Umbrella Man, Part II”
The Umbrella Man, Part I
This is a video from The New York Times. It is the interview of Josiah “Tink” Thompson, author of 6 Seconds in Dallas, discussing “The Umbrella Man.” The Umbrella Man was a real-life figure caught on film in Dealey Plaza at the same time as the Kennedy assassination. He held a black umbrella on aContinue reading “The Umbrella Man, Part I”
The Intelligence Shop 