The following is an application of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to the Route 91 Harvest shooter case, the mass murder of 58 persons attending an open-air music festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, on 1 October 2017. The case came to a dissatisfying close in early 2019 with investigators announcing a motive was notContinue reading “ACH: The Route 91 Harvest Shooting”
Tag Archives: bias
Analysis, Not Opinions
An intelligence analyst may be a subject matter “expert.” This expertise could be derived from years of service, formal education, or intimate knowledge of a topic, such as growing up in the country of his or her assigned portfolio. Still, when it comes to answering an intelligence question, the role of the analyst is toContinue reading “Analysis, Not Opinions”
The Umbrella Man, Part II
This is part II of The Umbrella Man. If you skipped the previous post, it might make more sense if you go back and take a quick look. A few years ago, I was reviewing CCTV images in relation to a suspicious incident. The picture quality was low and there was no audio. As IContinue reading “The Umbrella Man, Part II”
Culture And The Challenge Of Mirror Imaging
Analysts in the IC are often called on to explain the behaviors, motives, and intent of actors outside of the United States. Explaining human behavior and interpreting thought is extraordinarily difficult even within one’s own culture, but it adds an extra dimension of complexity when we discuss persons whose cultures we don’t share. Mirror imaging,Continue reading “Culture And The Challenge Of Mirror Imaging”
The Intelligence Shop 