Laureen Rahn: ACH Stalls And TRACE Falls Short
The Laureen Rahn case appeared to be a straightforward analysis. There was enough information about Laureen’s character and behavior to contribute to a victimology assessment, and a fair accounting of her last known activities. But halfway through the ACH matrix, it became clear that the available evidence was not strong enough to distinguish between multiple…
Keep readingMitchel Weiser and Bonnie Bickwit: A Team Approach
The disappearance of Mitchel Weiser and Bonnie Bickwit in 1973 resembles the Amy Wroe Bechtel case in the absence of evidence. Both matters were examined on this site using The TRACE Technique, a formal methodology for cases with low to no evidence. Its application here reinforced that TRACE is a good fit for this type…
Keep readingJudy Bradford Smith: Using “Imperfect” Sources To Support Your Analysis
The Judy Bradford Smith case presented challenges that called for the use of some source documents that would not typically meet the standard for intelligence work. Here, the lesson is not to avoid these sources. Instead, it is to grade citations and disclose the level to which the information can be verified so your audience…
Keep readingKendrick Lamar Johnson: Evaluating The Quality Of The Underlying Evidence
The Kendrick Lamar Johnson case illustrates that when the most diagnostic evidence cannot be reliably interpreted, confidence in every competing hypothesis is necessarily constrained. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an official investigative finding and reflects the evidence available at…
Keep readingDavina Buff Jones: Compromised Evidence And The “Indeterminate” Hypothesis
Compromised evidence at the scene of the death of police officer Davina Buff Jones prevented a strong conclusion about the manner of death. In similar cases, adding the qualifier “indeterminate/insufficient evidence” to the list of hypotheses can bring attention to the fact the leading theory still possesses inconsistencies so severe that a confident judgment remains…
Keep readingWhat Happened To The Jamison Family?
The case of the missing Jamison family illustrates how unresolved investigations can accumulate narrative distortion over time. ACH mitigates this problem by separating emotionally compelling or speculative details from evidence that genuinely discriminates between competing hypotheses. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It…
Keep readingDan Rapoport: Was His Fall A Suicide Or A Homicide?
The investigation into the fatal fall of Dan Rapoport from a Washington, D.C., apartment illustrates the dilemma of data quantity versus data quality. When an analysis stalls, the solution isn’t always to hunt for more evidence; instead, try re-examining your existing dataset from a fresh perspective. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational…
Keep readingDavid Glenn Lewis: Criminal Case Or Private Matter?
The David Glenn Lewis disappearance, and the decade-long delay in identifying his remains, was one of the most perplexing cases The Intelligence Shop has ever analyzed. Although Lewis’s identity and the circumstances of his death became known, the purpose of his journey to Washington remains unexplained. This analysis evaluates several possible explanations without assuming that…
Keep readingAsha Degree: Beyond End-Based Analysis
End-based analysis is common, but the Asha Degree case shows that meaningful analysis can occur at any point in case work. Asking, and answering through analysis, focused questions along the way can deepen our understanding of a matter. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available…
Keep readingJohn P. Wheeler III: Analysis When Evidence Is Limited Or Unavailable
CONTEX, as illustrated by the John P. Wheeler III case, is an analytical framework devised jointly by the analyst and AI tool Claude that is suitable when some evidence is present, but limited, or else unavailable at the time of the analysis. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence…
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