Crime Analysis is a page that has recently been added to The Intelligence Shop. Here we explore unsolved crimes — historic and more recent — with two goals: to help bring clarity to these cases, and to illustrate the use of structured analytic techniques.
Kendrick Lamar Johnson: Evaluating The Quality Of The Underlying Evidence
The Kendrick Lamar Johnson case illustrates that when the most diagnostic evidence cannot be reliably interpreted, confidence in every competing hypothesis is necessarily constrained. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an official investigative finding and reflects the evidence available at…
Keep readingDavina Buff Jones: Compromised Evidence And The “Indeterminate” Hypothesis
Compromised evidence at the scene of the death of police officer Davina Buff Jones prevented a strong conclusion about the manner of death. In similar cases, adding the qualifier “indeterminate/insufficient evidence” to the list of hypotheses can bring attention to the fact the leading theory still possesses inconsistencies so severe that a confident judgment remains…
Keep readingWhat Happened To The Jamison Family?
The case of the missing Jamison family illustrates how unresolved investigations can accumulate narrative distortion over time. ACH mitigates this problem by separating emotionally compelling or speculative details from evidence that genuinely discriminates between competing hypotheses. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It…
Keep readingDan Rapoport: Was His Fall A Suicide Or A Homicide?
The investigation into the fatal fall of Dan Rapoport from a Washington, D.C., apartment illustrates the dilemma of data quantity versus data quality. When an analysis stalls, the solution isn’t always to hunt for more evidence; instead, try re-examining your existing data set from a fresh perspective. Methodology and Scope This case study is an…
Keep readingDavid Glenn Lewis: Criminal Case Or Private Matter?
The David Glenn Lewis disappearance, and belated rediscovery, is one of the most perplexing cases The Intelligence Shop has ever analyzed. The analysis led to a lesser examined theory for his departure and one that might be considered in future similar cases. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence…
Keep readingAsha Degree: Beyond End-Based Analysis
End-based analysis is common, but the Asha Degree case illustrates how meaningful analysis can occur at any point in case work. Asking, and answering through analysis, focused questions along the way can deepen our understanding of a matter. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available…
Keep readingJohn P. Wheeler III: Analysis When Evidence Is Limited Or Unavailable
CONTEX, as illustrated by the John P. Wheeler III case, is an analytical framework devised jointly by the analyst and AI tool Claude that is suitable when some evidence is present, but limited, or else unavailable at the time of the analysis. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence…
Keep readingPsychological Cascades And Unintended Consequences: The Death Of Col. Philip M. Shue
Col. Philip M. Shue’s passing appears to be another example of a psychological cascade that led to unintended consequences. The case mirrors AUSA Jonathan P. Luna’s complex death. Psychological cascades are hypotheses that should be considered in difficult to explain cases. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis…
Keep readingThe TRACE Technique: A Strategy For Low Evidence Cases
This is an outline of The TRACE Technique (Threat assessment, Reconciliation with facts, Analysis of competing explanations, Conditional probability Evaluation), an analytical methodology developed collaboratively by AI and this analyst to examine the disappearance of Amy Wroe Bechtel. It is applicable to any criminal case with minimal physical evidence. TRACE shifts the focus of the…
Keep readingAmy Wroe Bechtel: Analysis In The Absence Of Evidence
BLUF | The TRACE Technique was developed through human-AI collaboration to examine the disappearance of Amy Wroe Bechtel. It is applicable to any criminal case with minimal physical evidence. TRACE shifts the focus of the analysis away from what, why, or how something happened, to which hypothesis best reconciles with known facts or evidence patterns,…
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