Here are some tips to help with your data analysis, a core competency of the intelligence analyst.
Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set.
Richards J. Heuer, The Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
- Begin your analysis by brainstorming to stimulate creativity and reduce mindset.
- Seek to disprove your hypothesis; never seek to confirm it.
- Focus on the inconsistencies of a theory.
- Incorporate formal methodologies, which can reduce bias and groupthink, and loosen mindsets. Formal methods also provide a roadmap of your analytical process so you can return later and identify positive and negative turns.
- Culture matters. When conducting an analysis that involves cultural interpretation, discuss your results with an associate or someone from the larger IC who may have grown up or spent considerable time in a region to minimize mirror imaging
- Artificial intelligence can offer an effective second opinion when it comes to structured techniques, such as the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Don’t rely on it alone. Do you own analysis and then use AI systems as sounding boards.
- In some cases, you may need to innovate a new analytical methodology if existing ones don’t meet your needs. The TRACE Technique is one example. If you do innovate a technique, be sure to delineate for your audience your method. Be honest with your audience about any weaknesses you may have detected.