Col. Philip M. Shue’s passing appears to be another example of a psychological cascade that led to unintended consequences. The case mirrors AUSA Jonathan P. Luna‘s complex death. Psychological cascades are hypotheses that should be considered in difficult to explain cases. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysisContinue reading “Psychological Cascades And Unintended Consequences: The Death Of Col. Philip M. Shue”
Category Archives: Analysis
Amy Wroe Bechtel: Analysis In The Absence Of Evidence
The disappearance of runner Amy Wroe Bechtel is analyzed using The TRACE Technique 1.0, a novel methodology developed through human-AI collaboration for cases with no- to low-physical evidence. TRACE shifts the focus of the analysis away from what, why, or how something happened, to which hypothesis best reconciles with known facts or evidence patterns, andContinue reading “Amy Wroe Bechtel: Analysis In The Absence Of Evidence”
AUSA Jonathan Paul Luna: The Limits Of Binary Thinking
An analysis of the Jonathan Luna case found the complex explanation for his death may have contributed to case laying unresolved since 2003.
Data Analysis: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst
Here are some tips to help with your data analysis, a core competency of the intelligence analyst. Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, TheContinue reading “Data Analysis: A Core Competency Of The Intelligence Analyst”
Dr. Tsunao Saitoh: An Unexplored Hypothesis, A Contextual Threat
An unexplored hypothesis, steeped in the context of the time in which the crime was committed, may offer a new direction in the 1996 murder of neuroscientist Tsunao Saitoh. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an official investigative finding andContinue reading “Dr. Tsunao Saitoh: An Unexplored Hypothesis, A Contextual Threat”