Some agencies task their intelligence analysts with forecasting near-term as well as “over-the-horizon” threats. These can be specific, such as the potential targeting of an upcoming local event, or they can be broader, like the types of international or domestic threats that are anticipated in an upcoming year or beyond. But unlike the analysis ofContinue reading “Forecasting Is Hard. Here’s What to Do When You’re Asked Anyway”
Category Archives: Analysis
How To Defend An Analytical Conclusion
If you’re challenged to defend an analytical conclusion, it will strengthen your argument if you’ve based that conclusion on a strong analytical framework. If confronted, you can retrace the path that led you to your findings, and it will bolster your case because structured techniques minimize bias and outside influence. Several years ago, I wasContinue reading “How To Defend An Analytical Conclusion”
The Robert Hanssen Spy Case: A Failure Of Analysis
This video shows a panel discussion of the Robert Hanssen investigation. Hanssen, a former FBI supervisor, was one of the most prolific spies in US history. However, an important side story—one that is critical from an analytical perspective—is that of CIA operative Brian Kelley, who was the FBI’s initial suspect based on a conclusion drawnContinue reading “The Robert Hanssen Spy Case: A Failure Of Analysis”
Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving
Analysis is what separates informal from formal problem solving. This diagram shows the difference. You can see hypotheses and evidence are processed very differently. Take a look at the first triangle. Here, we begin to form a single explanation as soon as we encounter a dataset or scenario. The “support” for it comes consciously andContinue reading “Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving”
Lessons In Analysis Taught By Umbrella Man Footage
Some good lessons in analysis can be learned by watching this video from The New York Times. It is the interview of Josiah “Tink” Thompson, author of 6 Seconds in Dallas, who discusses “The Umbrella Man.” The Umbrella Man was a real-life figure caught on film in Dealey Plaza at the same time as theContinue reading “Lessons In Analysis Taught By Umbrella Man Footage”