Tag Archives: forecasting

Some agencies task their intelligence analysts with forecasting near-term as well as “over-the-horizon” threats. These can be specific, such as the potential targeting of an upcoming local event, or they can be broader, like the types of international or domestic threats that are anticipated in an upcoming year or beyond. But unlike the analysis ofContinue reading “Forecasting Is Hard. Here’s What to Do When You’re Asked Anyway”

Intelligence agencies are good at new production, but revisiting published analyses, also referred to as a postmortem analysis, is good practice to see if products stand the test of time. Generally, self-examination occurs only after publicly-exposed intelligence failures. More often than not, once a department hits the dissemination button, the process ends. But revisiting publishedContinue reading “Revisiting Published Analyses To Improve Accuracy Of Future Work”