This video shows a panel discussion of the Robert Hanssen investigation. Hanssen, a former FBI supervisor, was one of the most prolific spies in US history. However, an important side story—one that is critical from an analytical perspective—is that of CIA operative Brian Kelley, who was the FBI’s initial suspect based on a conclusion drawnContinue reading “The Robert Hanssen Spy Case: A Failure Of Analysis”
Category Archives: Analysis
Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving
Analysis is what separates informal from formal problem solving. This diagram shows the difference. You can see hypotheses and evidence are processed very differently. Take a look at the first triangle. Here, we begin to form a single explanation as soon as we encounter a data set or scenario. The “support” for it comes consciouslyContinue reading “Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving”
Lessons In Analysis Taught By Umbrella Man Footage
Some good lessons in analysis can be learned by watching this video from The New York Times. It is the interview of Josiah “Tink” Thompson, author of 6 Seconds in Dallas, who discusses “The Umbrella Man.” The Umbrella Man was a real-life figure caught on film in Dealey Plaza at the same time as theContinue reading “Lessons In Analysis Taught By Umbrella Man Footage”
Culture And The Challenge Of Mirror Imaging
Analysts in the IC are sometimes called upon to explain the behaviors, motives, and intent of actors outside of the United States. Explaining human behavior and interpreting thought is extraordinarily difficult even within one’s own culture, but it adds a dimension of complexity when we discuss persons whose cultures we don’t share. Mirror imaging, orContinue reading “Culture And The Challenge Of Mirror Imaging”
Revisiting Published Analyses To Improve Accuracy Of Future Work
Intelligence agencies are good at new production, but revisiting published analysis, also referred to as a postmortem analysis, is good practice to see if products stand the test of time. Generally, self-examination occurs after publicly-exposed intelligence failures. More often than not, once a department hits the dissemination button, the process ends. But revisiting published analysesContinue reading “Revisiting Published Analyses To Improve Accuracy Of Future Work”