Intelligence gaps are the spaces in our understanding of a matter. They represent information that is not available for one reason or another, but if it were available, we could offer decision makers a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. In some cases, gaps can be filled by tasking investigators to reach out to their sources.Continue reading “Intelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns”
Category Archives: Analysis
The Route 91 Harvest Shooting: An Analysis Of Motives
The following is an application of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to the Route 91 Harvest shooter case, the mass murder of 58 persons attending an open-air music festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, on 1 October 2017. The case came to a dissatisfying close in early 2019 with investigators announcing a motive was notContinue reading “The Route 91 Harvest Shooting: An Analysis Of Motives”
Forecasting Is Hard. Here’s What to Do When You’re Asked Anyway
Some agencies task their intelligence analysts with forecasting near-term as well as “over-the-horizon” threats. These can be specific, such as the potential targeting of an upcoming local event, or they can be broader, like the types of international or domestic threats that are anticipated in an upcoming year or beyond. But unlike the analysis ofContinue reading “Forecasting Is Hard. Here’s What to Do When You’re Asked Anyway”
How To Defend An Analytical Conclusion
If you’re challenged to defend an analytical conclusion, it will strengthen your argument if you’ve based that conclusion on a strong analytical framework. If confronted, you can retrace the path that led you to your findings, and it will bolster your case because structured techniques minimize bias and outside influence. Several years ago, I wasContinue reading “How To Defend An Analytical Conclusion”
The Robert Hanssen Spy Case: A Failure Of Analysis
This video shows a panel discussion of the Robert Hanssen investigation. Hanssen, a former FBI supervisor, was one of the most prolific spies in US history. However, an important side story—one that is critical from an analytical perspective—is that of CIA operative Brian Kelley, who was the FBI’s initial suspect based on a conclusion drawnContinue reading “The Robert Hanssen Spy Case: A Failure Of Analysis”