In 2023, an FBI intelligence product intended for internal use only was leaked to the public. The piece received criticism from some outlets for its content, but also for its sources. The problem with its sources came down to two issues: the product used popular magazines as a primary means of support for its premises;Continue reading “Strong, Neutral Sources: The Foundation of A Defensible Analysis”
Author Archives: PATTI
Intelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns
Intelligence gaps are the spaces in our understanding of a matter. They represent information that is not available for one reason or another, but if it were available, we could offer decision makers a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. In some cases, gaps can be filled by tasking investigators to reach out to their sources.Continue reading “Intelligence Gaps: The Known Unknowns”
The Route 91 Harvest Shooting: An Analysis Of Motives
The following is an application of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) to the Route 91 Harvest shooter case, the mass murder of 58 persons attending an open-air music festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, on 1 October 2017. The case came to a dissatisfying close in early 2019 with investigators announcing a motive was notContinue reading “The Route 91 Harvest Shooting: An Analysis Of Motives”
Timeline: Adding Perspective And Clarity, The Route 91 Harvest Shooter
When supporting a complex investigation through intelligence analysis one way to organize your data is through a timeline. When incidents leading up to an event are sorted chronologically they can sometimes put precipitating incidents into perspective, which may reveal clues that are less apparent than when you’re reading case files alone. Timelines are also helpfulContinue reading “Timeline: Adding Perspective And Clarity, The Route 91 Harvest Shooter”
Mindsets: Robert Hanssen Spy Case Shows They Are Difficult To Overcome
Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Focusing on a single scenario early in an analysis can lead to a mindsetContinue reading “Mindsets: Robert Hanssen Spy Case Shows They Are Difficult To Overcome”