Major intelligence failures are usually caused by failures of analysis, not failures of collection. Relevant information is discounted, misinterpreted, ignored, rejected or overlooked because it fails to fit a prevailing mental model or mind-set. Richards J. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Focusing on a single scenario early in an analysis can lead to a mindsetContinue reading “Mindsets: Robert Hanssen Spy Case Shows They Are Difficult To Overcome”
Author Archives: PATTI
The Format Of The Analytical Statement: What/So What?
Intelligence analysis is the interpretation of facts. Analysts examine a scenario or data set, put the facts into context, add perspective, and explain to a decision maker why it all matters. The written format of an analytical statement is sometimes described as the “what/so what?” The “what” is the fact; the “so what” is itsContinue reading “The Format Of The Analytical Statement: What/So What?”
A Strong Title Delivers Your Bottom Line
The title of an intelligence product is a shortened version of the thesis; it delivers the product’s bottom line. A title should contain as much of the who, what, where, when, why, and how of the thesis statement as possible while still being concise. Titles are written in the form of an incomplete sentence. TheyContinue reading “A Strong Title Delivers Your Bottom Line”
How To Create A Defensible Data Set For Intelligence Production
Compiling a data set to support an intelligence product seems like a straightforward process: define attributes, select entities, and add them to a database for later sorting and analysis. In reality, the process can be challenging to get right. One of the first obstacles is finding data. There are three choices: assemble your own dataContinue reading “How To Create A Defensible Data Set For Intelligence Production”
Forecasting Is Hard. Here’s What to Do When You’re Asked Anyway
Some agencies task their intelligence analysts with forecasting near-term as well as “over-the-horizon” threats. These can be specific, such as the potential targeting of an upcoming local event, or they can be broader, like the types of international or domestic threats that are anticipated in an upcoming year or beyond. But unlike the analysis ofContinue reading “Forecasting Is Hard. Here’s What to Do When You’re Asked Anyway”