The phrase “science and data” is used widely to imply an indisputable truth. Science has the weight of repeatable experiments with consistent results to support it, but data are simply individual facts that are of limited value unless they are extrapolative to a population, and they are correctly interpreted and contextualized. If the data areContinue reading “The Fallibility Of Data”
Category Archives: Preparation
Compiling A Defensible Data Set
Compiling a data set to support an intelligence project seems like a straightforward process: define attributes, select entities, and add them to a database for later sorting and analysis. In reality, the process can be challenging to get right. One of the first obstacles is finding data. There are three choices: assemble your own dataContinue reading “Compiling A Defensible Data Set”
Assessing The Assessment: “Domestic Violent Extremism Poses Heightened Threat In 2021”
Note: This post is based exclusively on the material released to the public and available on the DHS Web site. I have not seen the full assessment, which would include supporting facts. Nevertheless, an executive summary is a condensed version of a full report and should offer readers enough information on which to base aContinue reading “Assessing The Assessment: “Domestic Violent Extremism Poses Heightened Threat In 2021””
What Do We Analyze?
There is a function in analysis for projecting uncertain futures, however, our general role is to analyze concrete, historical data. The data may be obtained internally in the course of an agency’s mission, or they may be obtained externally from data sets compiled by government and private entities. Internally-obtained data Internally-obtained data are likely partContinue reading “What Do We Analyze?”
Crafting An Intelligence Question
Revised 29 January 2022 A good intelligence question leads naturally to an analytical thesis. It is distinguished from a research question in that a research question elicits facts; an intelligence question elicits analysis. The answer to an intelligence question offers a “what” and a “so what.” The “what” is a factual statement that might deriveContinue reading “Crafting An Intelligence Question”
The Intelligence Shop 