Revised: 5 September 2026 This is an outline of The TRACE Technique (Threat assessment, Reconciliation with facts, Analysis of competing explanations, Conditional probability Evaluation), an analytical methodology developed collaboratively between this analyst and AI to examine the disappearance of Amy Wroe Bechtel. It is applicable to any case with no or low physical evidence. TRACEContinue reading “The TRACE Technique: A Strategy For No- To Low-Evidence Cases”
Category Archives: Crime Analysis
Amy Wroe Bechtel: Analysis In The Absence Of Evidence
The TRACE Technique was developed through human-AI collaboration to examine the disappearance of Amy Wroe Bechtel. This methodology is applicable to any case with low to no physical evidence. TRACE shifts the focus of the analysis away from what, why, or how something happened, to which hypothesis best reconciles with known facts or evidence patterns,Continue reading “Amy Wroe Bechtel: Analysis In The Absence Of Evidence”
AUSA Jonathan Paul Luna: The Limits Of Binary Thinking
An analysis of the Jonathan Luna case found the complex explanation for his death may have contributed to case laying unresolved since 2003.
Dr. Tsunao Saitoh: An Unexplored Hypothesis, A Contextual Threat
An unexplored hypothesis, steeped in the context of the time in which the crime was committed, may offer a new direction in the 1996 murder of neuroscientist Tsunao Saitoh. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an official investigative finding andContinue reading “Dr. Tsunao Saitoh: An Unexplored Hypothesis, A Contextual Threat”
Jamie Stickle: A Team A/Team B Analysis In Action
In cases where there is strong disagreement and the evidence appears to support divergent hypotheses, such as demonstrated here in the matter of Jamie Stickle, consider conducting a Team A/Team B analysis. Methodology and Scope This case study is an educational demonstration of structured intelligence analysis using publicly available information. It is not an officialContinue reading “Jamie Stickle: A Team A/Team B Analysis In Action”