Open source intelligence sites, such as .gov, .org, .edu, and many .com sites, used to be acceptable choices for research for both finished and raw intelligence. They might not always have been neutral, but their biases were generally discernible and could be filtered from the final product. But the trustworthiness of publicly available data isContinue reading “Open Source Intelligence: Good, But Use With Caution”
Author Archives: PATTI
The Diligent Researcher Equal To Subject Matter Expert
Subject matter experts (SMEs) are sought for their mastery of a topic, but political science writer Philip Tetlock in his book, Expert Political Judgment, found diligent researchers, who applied critical thinking to a problem, performed equally as well or slightly better than SMEs when it came to forecasting political outcomes. This phenomena applies equally wellContinue reading “The Diligent Researcher Equal To Subject Matter Expert”
The Robert Hanssen Spy Case: A Failure Of Analysis
This video shows a panel discussion of the Robert Hanssen investigation. Hanssen, a former FBI supervisor, was one of the most prolific spies in US history. However, an important side story—one that is critical from an analytical perspective—is that of CIA operative Brian Kelley, who was the FBI’s initial suspect based on a conclusion drawnContinue reading “The Robert Hanssen Spy Case: A Failure Of Analysis”
Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving
Analysis is what separates informal from formal problem solving. This diagram shows the difference. You can see hypotheses and evidence are processed very differently. Take a look at the first triangle. Here, we begin to form a single explanation as soon as we encounter a dataset or scenario. The “support” for it comes consciously andContinue reading “Analysis Is The Difference Between Informal And Formal Problem Solving”
Hedge Words: Leaving Room For The Unexpected
When I first began to write finished intelligence, it frustrated me when editors recommended revisions that included hedge words, also known as words of estimative probability (likely, possibly, probably, the facts appear to be consistent with, and others). I did a thorough job on my products and the language I chose reflected my confidence. IContinue reading “Hedge Words: Leaving Room For The Unexpected”