OSINT: Losing Credibility

At one time, .gov, .org, .edu, and many .com sites were considered acceptable sources for research and analysis for both finished and raw intelligence. They might not always have been neutral, but their biases were generally discernible and could be filtered from the final product. But the trustworthiness of publicly available data has eroded. TheContinue reading “OSINT: Losing Credibility”

The Subject Matter Expert Versus The Diligent Researcher

As election 2016 came to its surprising conclusion, more than a few subject matter experts (SMEs) found egg on their faces. The results confirmed findings presented by political science writer Philip Tetlock in his book, Expert Political Judgment. At the risk of oversimplification, Dr. Tetlock argued that non-SMEs who apply critical thinking may have anContinue reading “The Subject Matter Expert Versus The Diligent Researcher”

Assessing The Assessment: “Domestic Violent Extremism Poses Heightened Threat In 2021”

Note: This post is based exclusively on the material released to the public and available on the DHS Web site. I have not seen the full assessment, which would include supporting facts. Nevertheless, an executive summary is a condensed version of a full report and should offer readers enough information on which to base aContinue reading “Assessing The Assessment: “Domestic Violent Extremism Poses Heightened Threat In 2021””

What Do We Analyze?

There is a function in analysis for projecting uncertain futures, however, our general role is to analyze concrete, historical data. The data may be obtained internally in the course of an agency’s mission, or they may be obtained externally from data sets compiled by government and private entities. Internally-obtained data Internally-obtained data are likely partContinue reading “What Do We Analyze?”