When I first began to write finished intelligence, it frustrated me when editors recommended revisions that included hedge words, also known as words of estimative probability (likely, possibly, probably, the facts appear to be consistent with, and others). I did a thorough job on my products and the language I chose reflected my confidence. I believed vacillation was a sign of sloppy analysis.
However, deeper into the job, I came to appreciate the use of “wobble words,” because even when we think we have the whole story, we sometimes don’t. There is the chance of a deception campaign on the part of the adversary, “facts” that are later revised, new information as an investigation continues, or even the surfacing of the dreaded unknown unknown intelligence gaps. When we write definitively and our analysis is later found faulty, our professional reputations, as well as the reputation of our agencies, may suffer. On the other end of the spectrum, serious—sometimes irreparable—consequences may result.
This was the case of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) used, in part, as justification for the Iraq war. Here is the opening key judgment from the executive summary:
“We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade.”
There is a little room for error or future clarification/modification, but not much.
An interesting side note comes in a report by Rand that suggested the NIE executive summary did not accurately reflect the body of the NIE. Rand wrote,
“The body of the NIE contained several qualifiers that were dropped in the executive summary…As the draft NIE went up the intelligence chain of command, the conclusions were treated increasingly definitively.”
Even if you are “thisclose” to a conclusive judgment, it’s a healthy habit to leave room in your analytical products for the unexpected.